Running contrary to national trends, the state of Arizona saw an overall decline in the average price of a home during the most recent quarter.
As compiled by the Standard & Poor’s Cotality Case-Shiller index, the Grand Canyon State saw a 0.3% decline in house prices from the fall of 2024 to the fall of 2025.
After an ongoing, restless increase in the price of a home in Arizona for the last several years, the state’s decline is more notable given that the national price average had increased this fall by 1.3% over where things stood in the fall of 2024.
The price drop was more noticeable at the city level, with Phoenix seeing a 2% decline within the last year. Similar declines were also posted in the big Sun Belt growth cities of Tampa, with prices off by 4.1%, and Dallas with a decline of 1.3%.
The decline in those places represents a stark reversal from recent trends seeing home prices consistently on the upside throughout Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
The sales price decline was equally on display in Colorado, which recorded a 1.2% drop. New Mexico, however, provided countercyclical figures, seeing a 2.7% increase in the last year.
In a statement providing a holistic view of trends nationally, Nicholas Godec, an analyst with Standard & Poor’s Dow Jones Indices, noted a 5.5% and 5.2% price gain in Chicago and New York City respectively, and remarked that those markets have “sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften.”
The drop in places like Phoenix and Dallas, on the other hand, underline a “particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.”
Such figures, of course, are a matter of perspective. Earlier this year a report issued by the Common Sense Institute of Arizona noted that while home prices have either remained flat or fallen in the large metro Phoenix market since their peak in the summer of 2022, “the average house remains 51.0% more expensive” than it was in 2019.
December 29, 2025
By Garry Boulard
