Although quarterly economic growth has been strong since the fall of 2020, a panel of economic analysts are suggesting that the good times may be soon over.
The New York-based Conference Board, a research group made up of more than 1,000 corporations, is anticipating a flat economic performance for the final quarter of this year, and an outright recession in early 2023.
In a just-released forecast, the board noted that its Leading Economic Index is off by 1.6% in its appraisals of the nation’s economy from now until the end of the year when compared to the numbers from the first six months of 2022.
A variety of trend lines are impacting the Conference Board’s forecasts including the highest inflation rates since the late 1970s, reduced manufacturing, and ongoing supply chain challenges.
In a statement, Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board, said, “Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders, suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy.”
According to the publication CFO Dive, the actions of the Federal Reserve could also be playing a part as it “tries to curb price pressures by raising the federal funds rate at the fastest pace since the 1980s.”
Although the Conference Board’s forecast represents one of the strongest recession predictions to date, the good news is that it is also anticipating that should a recession occur, it will be a “short, but mild” one.
By Garry Boulard
