As if the price of gasoline and other consumer goods have not gone up enough in recent months, a survey of economists from across the country is predicting that prices will lurch upward yet some more by the end of this year.
The survey, conducted by the site Bloomberg.com, asked some 72 economists for their views on economic growth for the rest of this year and heading into early 2023. The consensus: the Consumer Price Index will mostly likely average around 5.7% in the final quarter of 2022, significantly up from the 4.5% increase projected in March.
The economists also increased to 27.5% the odds of the country entering a recession in the next 12 months. In March, those same experts pegged the chance of a recession at 20%.
According to Bloomberg reporters Reade Pickert and Kyungjn Yoo, this most recent survey “captures economists’ forecasts after the first full month of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has driven up prices of major commodities like food and oil and stressed fragile supply chains.”
Overall, the nation’s Consumer Price Index, as measured from early 2021 to the first three months of this year, has been on a continual upward ride of anywhere from 4.6% to 7.0%.
In February, the Consumer Price Index hit its highest peak since January of 1982, according to Bureau of Labor Statistic data.
The Zurich, Switzerland-based UBS Group, a multinational investment bank and financial services company, is forecasting that the latest inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index and to be released later this week, will likely hit the 8.5% mark.
If it goes that high, says the New York Times, it “could make the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at a larger scale than previously anticipated.”
But UBS has a different take on where things are heading, predicting that inflation will more than likely decrease for the rest of the year. According to the publication Fortune, UBS is now anticipating that gas prices, hitting record numbers this winter, “will decline every month through November, helping to reduce inflation.”
By Garry Boulard
