Collecting detailed anecdotal information from economists, bankers, and business people across the country, the latest edition of the much-quoted Beige Book duly notes: consumers are holding off on major spending until after the presidential election.
Even more, says the publication, which is put out eight times a year by the Federal Reserve Board, businesses are forestalling new projects until it is known whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump is the winner.
“Many contacts reported hesitancy in decision-making owing to heightened uncertainty surrounding the presidential election,” summed up a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Similarly, notes the latest information coming out of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, activity in the nonfinancial services in recent weeks appeared subdued, with some firms contending that “activity was being constrained by a hesitancy to make any new investments or business decisions until the uncertainty around the election and international conflicts is resolved.”
Despite such hesitancy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, whose Tenth District includes all of Colorado and northern New Mexico, reported that economic activity in recent weeks has in general “held steady, led by modest growth in consumer spending.” Home prices in Colorado and New Mexico, meanwhile, were seen as expanding at a slower pace, with construction throughout the region generally on the upside.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in the Eleventh District that takes in all of Texas and southern New Mexico reported a modestly expanding economy. But nonprofit service providers in the region remarked that “economic and election uncertainty has led to hesitancy to give among some donors.”
The potential economic impact of the election is not confined to just those participating in the Beige Book survey. A new questionnaire put together by the financial planning firm Empower reveals that 42% of respondents said they expected their finances to be affected by the election. Another 57% predicted that the job market will be influenced by the election.
To what degree any of pre-election unease matters may be hard to measure. But one contact in the Bank of Richmond’s survey chalked up all such feelings to the “usual nervous period” that accompanies the usual nervous quadrennial contest.
October 28, 2024
By Garry Boulard
