Both the national debt as well as the federal deficit are on track to increase by trillions of dollars between now and 2036, says a new government report, potentially reaching levels never seen in history.
Those projections have just been released by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, which more specifically says the national debt is on track to grow to 120% of Gross Domestic Product in the next decade.
Things look equally alarming with the deficit, slated to reach $3.1 trillion by 2036.
In a statement, Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, remarked: “Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable.”
The latest CBO estimates, published in the agency’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, notes that the national debt is heading toward a high not seen since 1946 when it stood at nearly 104% of Gross Domestic Product.
Throughout the 1950s and 60s the national stood at a sustainable plateau of around 25%. The figure doubled in the following decades, and is now at a stratospheric 99%.
With that trajectory, says the CBO report, “the balance of Social Security’s Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is exhausted in 2032, one year earlier than we projected last January.”
Equally dire: The impact of growing debt is “reflected in the deficit projections through higher interest costs. Net outlays for interest go from $1.0 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036, rising from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6%.
The new CBO figures, says the New York Times, suggest the possibility of the “world’s most important economy” being at risk of a “destabilizing debt crisis.” Those figures, adds the Financial Times, “will add to heightened investor concerns about the scale of the US debt pile.”
One hopeful note: the report estimates that the higher tariffs imposed last year by the Trump administration appear likely to reduce the deficit by about $3 trillion.
February 12, 2026
By Garry Boulard
Photo courtesy of Congressional Budget Office
