The Gross Domestic Product, after turning in desultory performances for most of 2022, came roaring back in the quarter ending in September, registering a 2.6% rate of growth.
That figure, just released by the Bureau of Economic Analysts, exceeded most economists’ expectations, and was fueled by an increase in manufacturing and consumer spending.
The 2.6% increase was particularly impressive when compared with the 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of this year, and the minus 0.6% from April to June.
Measuring the value of all goods and services produced over a three-month period, the Gross Domestic Product is seen as both a retrospective look at where the country has been in the last quarter, as well as a hopeful harbinger in terms of where it may be going.
The 2.6% increase, according to the BEA, reflected increases in “both goods and services.”
According to a press released issued by the agency, “within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials.”
In the consumer spending category, the increase was led by health care and other services, although someone offset by a decrease in goods.
Meanwhile, the quarter also saw an increase in federal government spending, led by the Department of Defense, and state and local government spending reflecting an “increase in compensation of state and local government employees.”
In a statement, President Biden hailed the new numbers, remarking: “Today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward.”
In digesting the new numbers, the New York Times said that while the new numbers were hopeful, “key components continue to show an economic slowdown.”
The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, remarked that “economists don’t expect the third-quarter rise in exports to endure, given a stronger dollar and weakening global economy.”
In an interview with the publication Vox, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, noted that while the latest numbers show “the economy is not in recession,” there remains a 50% chance that a recession will be underway by next year.
By Garry Boulard
