More than half of nearly 200 business economists surveyed in a recent industry poll say they are doubtful that the Federal Reserve is going to successfully reduce the nation’s inflation rate by the end of the year.
The findings of the Economic Policy Survey, as published by the Washington-based National Association for Business Economics, indicate that 52% of respondents thought the idea of getting the inflation rate down to 8.5% was unrealistic.
Even more, a strong 47% of the respondents said they thought a recession will be underway by either late this year or in the first quarter of 2023. Even more, just under 20% of the respondents said that they thought the country was already in a recession.
Other respondents forecast a recession some ways down the road, with 20% seeing it taking place sometime in the second quarter of 2023.
In a statement, David Altig, National Association for Business Economics president, said what he called the “split opinions” regarding when and if a recession will take place “suggests that there is less clarity than usual about the outlook.”
Further poll results reveal that 59% of the polled respondents believe fiscal policy coming out of Washington should be focused more on robust economic growth in the “medium-to-long term,” while only 25% thought the emphasis should be placed on reducing the deficit and overall debt levels.
Indicating a more activist approach, a commanding 76% of respondents said they were supportive of the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act. An equally strong 69% had no problem with a minimum 15% corporate tax.
Another large 63% said they were generally in favor of private-public investments, rebates, and subsidies designed to combat climate change.
By Garry Boulard
