![]() The national economy is performing better than popular opinion might have it, with steady growth thus far for most of this year and positive signs for the rest of 2023. That upbeat assessment is being offered in a new report, Midyear 2023 Outlook, published by financial services giant J.P. Morgan Chase & Company. The reports notes that for the first six months of this year the nation's Gross Domestic Product has increased by anywhere from 2% to 2.4%, with consumer spending remaining steady. And even as business sentiment and business investment has remained flat for most of 2023, says the report, "there are indications this is turning the corner." Similarly, "monetary policy has been restrictive for several months now, and we think the hiking cycle is nearing its end." Noting the Federal Reserve's ongoing increase in interest rates over the last year, the study predicts: "We expect the Fed to be on hold through the middle of next year, provided inflation continues on its downward glide path." In fact, the inflation trend line has been moving in "the right direction," although the J.P. Morgan analysts nonetheless acknowledge that it has "proven to be more persistent than expected through the first half of the year." Contributing to the decline in inflation has been a notable decrease in energy prices, while at the same time a reduction in "core services inflation" has dropped from 7.3% earlier this year to 6.1% last month. Founded by John Pierpont Morgan during the Civil War, J.P. Morgan and Company rose to become one of the largest private banking houses on Wall Street. Morgan, with an eventual personal wealth of more than $80 million, summed up his optimistic capitalism in one sentence: "Go as far as you can see; when you get there you will be able to see farther." J.P. Morgan and Company merged with Chase Manhattan in 2000 to become one of the largest banks in the world. Its regularly published outlook reports are regarded as incisive snapshots of the national economy at any given point in time. By Garry Boulard
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