![]() Single-family home construction projects saw a decided increase nationally towards the end of 2023, spurred on by lowered interest rates. So says a new study issued by the National Association of Home Builders noting that overall housing starts were up by nearly 15% at the end of November. In seasonally adjusted numbers, this meant work on 1.5 million new units. "The single-family starts figure is remarkably strong," remarked Robert Dietz, chief economist with the NAHB, in a statement. Dietz added: "We would not be surprised to see this figure revised lower or fall back slightly, given the nearly 20% rise in November." That number is particularly impressive given that historically the month of November usually sees a decline in starts. At the same time, single-family permits inched upwards by 0.7%, for a 976,000-unit rate. The single-family starts have been on the upside since late last summer, resulting in the greatest number of completions nationally since early 2022. Despite those good numbers, overall single-family starts from late 2022 to late 2023 were down by 7.2%. Looking at the new year, Dietz remarked that the NAHB is "forecasting an approximate 4% gain for single-family starts in 2024 as mortgage rates settle lower, economic growth slows, and inflation moves lower." While generally moving upward over the course of the last decade, single-family construction took a sudden nosedive in the spring of 2022. That was when, notes the publication Wolf Street, "surging mortgages rates began to bite, unsold inventory began to pile up, and homebuilders were pulling back on new projects." "Many of the top national home builders have rosy forecasts for the coming year," says the industry news service Housing Wire, noting in addition that the U.S. "remains deficient by anywhere between 1.5 million and 7.3 million housing units due to a severe lack of supply produced between 2012 and 2019." On a cautionary note, Alicia Huey, NAHB chairman, said that although recent trends show a national rise in builder sentiment, "home builders continue to contend with elevated construction and regulatory costs." By Garry Boulard
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