A prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran has the potential of impacting the national and international economy at multiple points, especially with investment and trade, says a new report.
In looking at the conflict as it nears its fourth week, the Deloitte Global Economic Research Center is recording a drastic decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with the seven-day moving average of ships dropping from around 80 one month ago to around 5 as of last week.
“As shipments stall, storage facilities are filling up fast,” notes the report, authored by Deloitte analyst Akrur Barua. “Consequently, several countries in the region have either currently shut down oil fields and refineries or reduced production.”
In noting that up to 30% of global fertilizer exports normally travel through the Strait of Hormuz, the report continues: “The conflict also puts global agriculture output at risk.”
The most serious blow is coming in the form of rising energy prices, with crude oil prices up by just under 40% in the last month. “Prices are unlikely to come down to pre-conflict levels any time soon without a credible end to hostilities—or at the least, a significant reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Specific to the U.S. economy, continues the Deloitte document, is the risk of inflation. “Even a small increase in inflation could add to existing price pressure on utilities, certain food items, and household durables.”
And such inflation “generally impacts low-income households the most,” a problem made all the worse given that such households also face a “higher debt burden, especially credit-card debt.”
Noting that additional segments of the global economy may also be adversely impacted, the Deloitte report adds that the road ahead is anything but clear: “It’s still the early days and a de-escalation remains possible. But until that happens, uncertainty is likely to persist.”
March 24, 2026
By Garry Boulard
Graphic courtesy of Pixabay
