Uncertainty regarding use of the Strait of Hormuz is the operative phase as international trade experts are trying to determine whether vessels can now push through the waterway.
The only sea passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and abutting southern Iran, the Strait of Hormuz in normal times provides a daily throughway for up to 20% of the world’s total liquefied natural gas and oil.
But the route’s use has been dramatically impacted by the U.S. war in Iran, with the latter country attacking ships in the strait after the conflict began on the last day of February.
Since the announcement of a cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran on April 7, four vessels carrying dry cargo have made it through the waterway. But thus far, reports the New York Times, “no gas or oil tankers have traversed the strait.”
The economic impact of a continued closing of the strait is not yet clear, although the Paris-based International Energy Agency has already characterized it as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
The countries of China, India, Japan and South Korea depend on oil that passes through the strait. All those countries, according to the non-profit Zero Carbon Analytics research group, are now at risk of significant supply disruptions.
For the U.S., the impact could be seen in a decline of aluminum, the fertilizers urea and ammonia, and naphtha, a crude oil byproduct. In a dispatch dated April 7, U.S. News & World Report noted that “U.S. consumers are facing rising costs as the war in Iran drags on,” adding that gas prices at $4.14 have gone up 21% in the last month and are at their highest since 2022.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Iranian government has said it plans to limit to around a dozen a day the number of ships using the Strait of Hormuz, a move that the Wall Street Journal says shows that country’s determination to “tighten its grip on the world’s most important energy-shipping lane.”
According to some reports, tolls now imposed by Iran have gone as high as $2 million per vessel.
Official negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are expected to begin on Saturday. Vice-President Vance, who will play lead role in those negotiations, said he is convinced an agreement can be reached pertaining to the complete opening of the strait.
“I’m optimistic the Iranians are going to be smart and negotiate in good faith,” Vance remarked to reporters.
In 1974 Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, was reported to have described the Strait of Hormuz as the world’s “jugular vein.” Cut it, he remarked, and the economies of countries around the globe would bleed.
April 9, 2026
By Garry Boulard
Postcard of the Strait of Hormuz
