There are only five months between now and the 2026 midterm elections, with reports indicating that the Democrats will more than likely win a majority of seats in the House.
As of today, the Republicans have 217 seats in the lower chamber, versus 212 seats controlled by the Democrats, comprising one of the smallest majority margins in recent history.
According to a new survey released by the Economist/YouGov, 39% of respondents said they currently plan to vote Democrat in their Congressional districts, compared with 33% who say they will back whoever the Republican nominee is.
But a large 28% of those surveyed said they were either unsure who to support at this point, or had no interest in voting one way or the other. That 28%, notes USA Today, “can be all the difference on Election Day.”
In a troubling sign for both parties, some 30% of all respondents, whether leaning Democrat or Republican, said in thinking of the November election that they were “not very motivated, if at all.”
Even more challenging for the parties, only 28% said they were happy with the job Democrats have thus far done in Congress, with that number being only slightly higher for Republicans at 30%.
Midterm congressional elections can be brutal for the party holding the White House: in 1994, during Democrat President Clinton’s first term, the Democrats lost control of the House for the first time in four decades, dropping 54 seats.
The 2010 party turnover during Democrat President Barak Obama’s first term was even more shattering as the Democrats lost 62 seats and the Republicans retook control of the House.
Similarly, the Republicans saw a loss of 42 seats and control of the House during Republican Donald Trump’s first mid-term challenge in 2018.
In a report just issued by the Center for Politics, Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz remarks: “The President’s party almost always loses seats in the House in midterm elections.”
Noting that the Democrats only need to pick up three Congressional seats in November, Abramowitz is predicting that they will win 23 new seats.
Former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich last week offered a different way of forecasting the November outcome on the program Pod Cast One. If gas prices are down to $3 per gallon by Labor Day, he predicted, the Republicans will enjoy “the largest off-year election in modern times.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average price per gallon as of the first week of June is $4.24.
June 5, 2026
By Garry Boulard
Graphic courtesy of Pixabay
