Although predictions of a recessionary downturn have been fairly general for well over a year now, a prestigious financial publication has just released a forecast suggesting that things are likely to get bad before they get better.
According to the New York-based site Bankrate, a recent survey of economists from around the country say there is now a 59% chance of a recession before July of 2024.
“That suggests a roughly 3 in 5 chance, showing probable odds that an economic environment featuring job loss, slower business growth, and a tougher stock market is on the horizon,” the publication reports.
To put a finer point on matters, roughly 78% of the responding economists said the chance of a recession is greater than 1 in 2, while 28% said the odds were 70% or higher.
A much smaller group, comprising 22%, pegged recession prospects at 50% or less.
While the results of the Bankrate survey may seem somewhat dire, the forecast is actually less gloomy than the one reported by the service in March of this year. Then the economists calculated there was a 64% chance of a recession before the end of 2023.
Such odds were only marginally higher during the third quarter of last year, when the same economists said there was a 65% chance of an upcoming recession.
Good news may be gleaned from predictions regarding the likely duration of a recession: While the odds of a downturn still seem marginally formidable, notes Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst with Bankrate, “the consensus remains that it could be short and shallow.”
The Bankrate survey dovetails several other recent reports also indicating a likely but mild recession. The site Seeking Alpha makes the point that the last expansion, prior to the Covid 19 outbreak, was relatively mild, thus: “If the next downturn occurs, we can expect it to be relatively mild.”
A recent New York Times analysis looking at the factors that have traditionally served as a precursor to a recession, notes instead: “The economy is recovering from a pandemic, unemployment is low, and companies and consumers are in mostly good shape.”
By Garry Boulard
